Yes, a Less Toxic Lake Erie is Still Possible Despite Climate Change

The Toledo Harbor Lighthouse in Lake Erie (Pictured Below)

The entire month of August, we have taken time to reflect on why we love Lake Erie. From fond fishing memories to family canoeing stories, people across the Great Lakes region expressed why it was important to invest in, protect, and appreciate 

one of our most precious natural resources. During this time, we also reflect on the unfortunate impairment of the lake and the long fight against harmful algal blooms (HABs). 

Actions targeting HABs, which threaten safe drinking water, have been varied and largely ineffective. For years, state agencies have partnered with farmers and business stakeholders to employ best management practices for commercial fertilizer application in efforts to reduce the nutrient run-off that contributes to HABs. U.S. federal funding has gone into local watershed projects, and several universities from Ohio and Michigan have conducted studies to help us better understand the cause and extent of the problems plaguing our lake. Unfortunately, these efforts have only yielded minimal progress towards the 10-year, 40% phosphorus reduction goal set by the U.S. and Canada.

Poor progress does not mean that effective nutrient reduction isn’t possible, but it is made more challenging by the absence of manure management in HABs conversations.  While this solution remains under-discussed and under-utilized due to its cost and complexity, more and more livestock are being allowed into already overburdened watersheds without considering the impact of excess nutrient pollution. If that weren’t troubling enough, reaching the 40% reduction goal proves to be even more challenging with climate change.

Climate change has played a significant role in the presence of HABs. The U.S. EPA cites warming water temperatures, changes in salinity, higher levels of carbon dioxide, and changes in rainfall as all factors that have impacted the severity and frequency of the blooms each year. The more rainfall we have, the more nutrients can be expected to wash off fields and into the waterways leading to the lake. Elevated carbon dioxide boosts algal growth—especially for surface-floating HAB species—and makes water more acidic, which helps HABs outcompete other algae. NOAA, also known as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, has been monitoring and providing the public with insights and forecasts on how large a bloom is expected to be each year. This year NOAA was able to confirm the EPA’s findings, linking the aforementioned factors to the increased growth rate, toxicity, and size of the blooms. 

For good reason, there is a growing concern around the impact of climate change on toxic HABs in Lake Erie. However, dealing with climate change requires much more time and investment, for which Lake Erie can’t afford to wait. There needs to be a concerted effort to target nutrient run-off at the source, and manure management has to be at the forefront of that conversation. 


For further information check out these links below: 

U.S. EPA, “Climate Change and Freshwater Harmful Algal Blooms,” https://www.epa.gov/habs/climate-change-and-freshwater-harmful-algal-blooms

NOAA, “Lake Erie Harmful Bloom Forecast,” 2025 https://coastalscience.noaa.gov/science-areas/habs/hab-forecasts/lake-erie/

National Center for Water Quality Research, Heidelberg University, 2023 https://ncwqr.org/publications/lab-publications/

Haley E. Plaas and Hans W. Paerl, “Toxic Cyanobacteria: A Growing Threat to Water and Air Quality,” Environmental Science & Technology 2021 https://paerllab.web.unc.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/17493/2020/12/Plaas-and-Paerl-EST-cyanotoxin-review.pdf